This article originally appeared in National Review September 21, 2025.

The jockeying for the 2028 presidential race is well underway, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer will surely be a contender for Democrats. So it’s worth paying attention to her ongoing debate with the state legislature over Michigan’s direction. By the end of the month, when the state budget is due, Americans will know if she’s moving toward commonsense spending and problem-solving — or doubling down on a failed and unaffordable vision of more taxes and spending.

Michigan needs to pass a budget by October 1, or else it will face a government shutdown. Since the start of the year, Whitmer’s fellow Democrats, who control the state senate, have demanded a blowout budget that Michigan can’t afford.

Democrats have called for a nearly 5 percent increase in state spending, an enormous jump at a time when federal cash to Michigan is drying up. It also comes on the heels of a combined 11 percent increase in state spending since Whitmer took office in 2019, adjusting for inflation. Democrats are calling for significantly more Medicaid spending, school funding, and corporate welfare for favored businesses. What they aren’t saying is that their out-of-control spending plans could tee up tax hikes in the years ahead, making Michigan’s already struggling economy even less competitive with neighboring states.

Republicans, by contrast, are calling for spending restraint. The party, which has a majority in the state house, has proposed a budget that’s only half a percent bigger than the current year’s. That’s impressive — and praiseworthy — on its own and makes Michigan Republicans a national model. But what’s even better is how they want to reform state spending.

Republicans have focused on one big priority: finally fixing Michigan’s roads. They say it will require a big infusion of taxpayer cash, but rather than simply adding billions of dollars to the budget, they want to cut wasteful spending and re-prioritize billions the state already spends.

Most notably, the GOP wants to eliminate $550 million in guaranteed annual funding for corporate welfare. This massive taxpayer giveaway to big businesses is one of Whitmer’s signature policies. Yet Republicans are fighting to end the guaranteed giveaways because taxpayers shouldn’t be in the business of picking winners and losers in the private market — especially since state subsidy programs have a proven record of picking mostly losers.

Republicans also want to end the state sales tax on gas, which currently funds schools, and raise the current fuel tax to pay for repairs to Michigan’s abysmal roads. That makes sense: Michiganders already face some of the highest taxes at the pump, and few other states opt to hit drivers with both sales taxes and fuel taxes on their gas purchases. The GOP plan would mean that Michiganders pay about the same for gas as they do today, but with much more of the money going to road repairs. And to make up for the lost spending on schools, Republicans are proposing a major increase in funding drawn from elsewhere in the budget. It’s more than enough to make up for the money that would be diverted to roads.

Crucially, the Republican plan won’t require tax hikes, because unlike the Democrats, they aren’t calling for a blowout budget. The question now is whether Whitmer will blindly back her fellow Democrats or actually broker a compromise with Republicans.

Shockingly, after years of refusing to work with the GOP, the governor is hinting that she’s open to a deal. She has said, “The budget’s not done unless roads are done, too,” implying support for the central piece of the Republican budget. What’s more, the Democratic Governors’ Association, of which Whitmer is a member, ran ads calling for Democrats in the Michigan Senate to pass a road plan. These are strong signs that Whitmer is willing to meet Republicans at least part of the way on their superior budget proposal.

The governor’s other option is to demand total fealty to the unaffordable and unnecessary Democratic plan. That may win her praise from left-wing activists, but it won’t separate her from the rest of the pack of presidential hopefuls. Virtually every Democrat with White House dreams is moving further to the left. Will Whitmer be the first to move to the middle — and show independence and leadership?

Permission to reprint this blog post in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided that the author (or authors) and the Mackinac Center for Public Policy are properly cited.