MIDLAND, Mich. — States that provide residents with lower tax rates and fewer regulations are more likely to experience population growth, the Mackinac Center for Public Policy finds in a new report on state-level population trends. The report, How to Make Michigan Grow, examines existing economic research to find what fuels states’ growth.

The study comes as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is seeking policies to address Michigan’s population loss, but research suggests state policymakers don’t have as much influence over population trends as they might think. Trends in birth and death rates are complicated phenomena, influenced by myriad social and cultural factors. State lawmakers also have little control over international migration.

But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing policymakers can do to grow a state’s population. The biggest impact can be made on domestic migration — people moving from state to state. The report found that population growth is closely linked to economic growth, so policymakers should first aim to improve the economy.

Narrowly focused policies geared toward helping specific industries, however, are least likely to be effective in growing population. Research shows that prioritizing certain industries through the use of corporate handouts or other incentives does not have positive impacts.

Trends in Michigan’s population growth rate show the state has significantly lagged the United States as a whole and lost population in 2019 and 2020. While the state’s international migration is about on par with the U.S. average, Michigan’s birth rate is slightly below it. From 2011 to 2020, more Americans left the state than moved into it.

Within Michigan, townships in the southeastern portion of the state and around Grand Rapids and Traverse City showed considerable population growth between 2010 and 2020. During this time, much of the rest of the state slowly lost population.

“If Michigan wants to grow its population, the state should aim to become a welcoming place for all types of entrepreneurs, job creators and workers,” said Hannah Kling, author of the study. “As policymakers seek ways to attract people to Michigan, they should remember to weigh costs and benefits carefully while aiming for policies that have the broadest impact.”

High-quality public amenities and services can be a draw for some populations, so improving these may be worthwhile. But policymakers should tread carefully: Increasing taxes to pay for new services is a deterrent to potential residents. The best approach would be for Michigan governments to improve the services they already provide and become more efficient in providing them. This could allow them to attract new residents while avoiding higher taxes.

When examining policies such as paid family leave and other purported economic incentives for having children, research found that these policies have little to no effect on birth rates. Instead, broad cultural changes play a greater role. While better schools can attract new families to certain areas, simply spending more money on education isn’t enough. Schools need to be consistently high-performing for people to find value.

“Interstate migration is arguably the single best measure of quality of life,” said Michael LaFaive, senior director of fiscal policy at the Mackinac Center. “For some reason people get up and go. They vote with their feet and often vote for states with the most economic freedom. Michigan has not been among them.”

Read the full study here.