Public schools would experience a reduction in foundation allowance payments equal to $391.5 million. Using our estimate for average short-run variable costs per student of $8,755, the estimated reduction in total short-run variable costs related to 45,000 students choosing to leave equals $394 million (=45,000 x $8,755).
The net fiscal impact on public schools is a short-run fiscal benefit equal to $2.5 million (= $394 million – $391.5 million), or $33 per ESA.