Michigan lags the rest of the country in population growth. When looking at ways to reverse that trend, it’s critical to examine the evidence on what works and what does not. It makes sense to put policy efforts toward areas where the research is clear rather than mixed or negative. Certain ideas, such as raising taxes to fund higher spending on public services and place-making policies or other attempts to copy popular cities or industries, may seem appealing, but these have generally been shown to be ineffective or counterproductive. An important takeaway from the research is that there are limits on what state officials can accomplish to influence population trends.
That said, policymakers’ best chance might be to impact domestic in-migration, or how many people move from other states to Michigan. The literature shows the importance of greater economic freedom for fostering local business activity and making a location a more appealing place to live.
The evidence clearly shows that economic growth and population growth are linked. A stronger economy attracts more in-migration. The more skilled workers the more productivity, entrepreneurship and innovation. Clusters of more educated individuals tend to support the types of local amenities that attract similarly well-educated people.
Unfortunately, there is no way to centrally design a growing economy. Instead, the research consistently shows that creating a free economy with stable laws is a necessary foundation for broad-based economic growth. The research suggests that top-down, “placemaking” policies are ineffective, especially when these efforts seek to copy other successful locations.
One potential area for policy to improve economic potential is in educational attainment. Education relates to productivity and business innovation, and some research suggests positive returns to investments in education programs and training, provided the high-skilled workers don’t move elsewhere. However, there are limits to this approach. The research suggests that more spending on public schools, for example, does not necessarily produce improved educational attainment. There is also a tension between spending more on public education and the higher taxes this would require. These higher taxes would repel migration and business investments. This highlights the importance of efficient public spending. Efficient governments could become more attractive by producing valuable public services without having to charge growth-repelling high tax rates.
The cost of living heavily influences people’s decisions about where to live. Housing prices are a big part of this. One of the most consistent findings in the research is the anti-growth effect of restrictive zoning policies. These policies artificially increase the cost of living relative to the underlying benefits of these places. The tendency of wealthier, more educated areas to adopt exclusionary land-use regulations creates a barrier to in-migration. State-level policies aimed at limiting municipalities’ ability to block new housing supply could significantly improve Michigan’s ability to draw new residents.
State policy appears restricted in its ability to improve birth rates. Research suggests that mandated paid leave and other so-called pro-family policies are insufficient to increase fertility rates. Some interventions seem merely to shift when individuals have children, rather than impacting the number of children they have. In isolation, lengthened parental leave or subsidized child care seems insufficient to influence birth rates. Instead, the increasingly flexible nature of work and the changing social norms of gender roles in parenting have the potential to increase fertility rates independent of policy interventions.
The final factor in population growth is longevity. In establishing ways to reduce the death rate, researchers consistently call for a comprehensive change involving medical care spending, social work, the medical community and the public. State policy seems to have some potential to address accidental deaths through improving traffic safety, but this would likely have a small impact on population growth overall.
When considering policies to increase population growth in Michigan, legislators should evaluate the research about what works. The evidence highlights the limits of using public policy to significantly boost population levels. Some of the clear policy recommendations that emerge from the research — creating economic growth, removing needless restrictions on housing construction, reducing crime, improving school performance — are complex problems where the impact could take years to develop.
Despite these challenges, there are still lessons for policymakers. Economic freedom is clearly important. The state should aim to make a welcoming place for all types of entrepreneurs and other job creators to attract investments and create employment opportunities for workers. It should make it easier for people to qualify for work by eliminating unnecessary occupational licensing requirements. Improving government efficiency goes a long way: providing high-quality public services that enhance people’s lives without charging growth-limiting tax rates can attract new populations. Regardless of the approach, policymakers should weigh costs and benefits carefully and aim for policies that have the broadest impact.