This sample includes counties from Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Kentucky and Ohio. Of these states, neither Ohio nor Illinois had right-to-work legislation passed by 2018, and Kentucky had just passed such legislation in 2017. Manufacturing accounts for roughly 21% of total private employment in this sample. The direct effect of right-to-work in a given county is estimated to increase manufacturing employment as a percentage of total private employment by 27.3%, a result that is similar to the one found in Michigan.
The indirect effect — that is, the collective spillover effect on other non-right-to-work counties — is estimated to reduce manufacturing employment share by a comparatively modest 7.7%. The net effect on manufacturing employment is to increase the manufacturing employment share by 19.6% across the five-state region.
In the construction industry, a similar effect was found. Indiana’s right-to-work law was associated with a 19.5% increase in employment share in the right-to-work counties, but a 3% decrease in non-right-to-work counties. The total effect is an overall increase in construction employment share of 16.5% for this region. In transportation and warehousing, the total effect is large and negative, similar to the Michigan results. Specifically, total transportation and warehousing employment share across the five-state region is lower by 26.4%.