In the Michigan Legislature, few policy changes are enacted during even-numbered years. Several unique dynamics will make 2024 even less productive than normal — at least until Thanksgiving.
First, the current state House has 56 Democratic and 54 Republican districts. The combined margin of victory in the two districts that gave the Democrats their slim majority was 1,425 votes. In 13 districts, the 2022 victor received less than 53% of the vote.
With August primaries and the November general election coming up, legislators want to finish the budget in June so they can spend the following four-plus months campaigning in their own districts as well as those of vulnerable colleagues.
Second, note in the second paragraph my use of “districts” rather than “legislators.” This is because two Democratic House members from Metro Detroit resigned their seats after being elected as mayors in last November’s municipal elections, temporarily deadlocking the House at 54-54.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has called special elections to replace those representatives, with the primary set for Jan. 30 and the general for April 16. Given the overwhelmingly partisan way the Legislature operated in 2023, it is highly unlikely that the House will accomplish much until the two new members are sworn in.
That brings me to the third unique and complicating dynamic for 2024. A federal three-judge panel has ruled that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission had drawn more than a dozen state House and Senate districts in Metro Detroit “predominantly on the basis of race,” violating the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
The court declined to order mid-cycle Senate elections, saying the plaintiffs had not originally sought that remedy. But it ordered that no elections take place in the affected House districts until they were redrawn and their constitutional defects corrected.
The commission has a redrawn district map out for public comment and expects to submit that to the court by the end of February. The court could accept the new lines or opt for an alternative drawn by a special master appointed by the court.
The boundary changes may not shift the partisan balance of the House much; experts believe three or four safe Democratic districts could be made competitive under a new map. Drawing incumbents into communities they don’t currently represent could, however, encourage more primary challengers. This would motivate those legislators to desire fewer days in Lansing and more in their retooled districts to meet their new voters.
The Senate, with its majority unaffected by the above, should proceed with business as usual in 2024.
A few longstanding Mackinac Center priorities could get bipartisan traction this year:
Gov. Whitmer and legislators in both parties have touted open-records expansion for years, and this could be the year it gets done. Frustration with the massive surge in corporate welfare spending and secrecy around the large economic development projects it funds has renewed legislators’ interest in measures to increase the transparency and accountability of the state’s economic development programs.
We expect movement early in 2024 to allow inmates in state prisons and other facilities to earn credit against their sentences by completing activities proved to reduce their likelihood of committing new crimes. Mackinac Center research published last year showed that inmates who completed education and/or workforce training programs while incarcerated had significantly better outcomes post-release than those who don’t.
Most of the report put forth by the governor’s Growing Michigan Together Council consists of vague advocacy for bigger government. But the report also calls for legislative action to reduce the burden of state occupational licensure so that non-Michiganders can move here and obtain employment quickly.
January to April:
Lots of committee hearings and fewer floor sessions, with fewer agenda items
May:
Lengthy floor sessions to vote on bills queued up by the Senate or by House committees
June:
Policy gets pushed to the side so the budget can be completed
July to Thanksgiving:
Campaign season
December:
Three weeks of a chaotic and contentious lame-duck session, especially if Democrats lose the House, as these three weeks would be the last chance for that majority and Gov. Whitmer to enact their priorities
