Table 7 on the next page shows the predicted number of students who would migrate from traditional public schools to alternative schools. Table 7 begins with the base-case assumption of total students, government school students, and alternative school students. Since the main dynamic in consumer choice in the education market is between the traditional public schools and private schools, the model is constrained to allow movement between these two sectors only, with the smaller charter school and home school sectors left alone. While this assumption is artificial, the relative size of these sectors suggests that a relaxation of the assumption will matter little in terms of the overall cost.98 From the current system alternative school student enrollment of 220,000, we apply a smoothed desired migration factor. Table 7 indicates that the migration in the first year, before the UTTC is implemented, is zero. This indicates that there is no migration between the two sectors. In the second year, the largest desired migration comes into effect: a 17-percent increase in demand for alternative schools.
|Table 7. Calculation of Migration Under UTTC Plan|
|Current System||UTTC Plan|
|Year||Traditional Public School Students||Alternative School Students||Smoothed Desired Migration Rate||Smoothed Desired Migration||Migration Limit||Projected Migration||Cumulative Migration||Total Alternative School Students|
|Migration Limit Factor = 15% (applied to previous year’s alternative school enrollment)|