The model predicts consumer behavior using well-defined techniques that take into account the incentives for parents to place their child in a traditional public school because of the significantly lower effective price. As the UTTC becomes available, the incentive to choose a traditional public school over an alternative school will be reduced. Therefore, more parents are likely to put their children in alternative schools. Appendix I discusses in detail the economic analysis used to project the response of consumers (students and parents) to changes in the price structure (alternative school tuition, tax credits, and "free" traditional public schools) in this market.
The model takes into account the increasing value of the UTTC relative to the average alternative school tuition. As shown in Figure 1, the UTTC starts at a relatively small share of the average alternative school tuition. Over the nine years in which the system is phased in, the maximum tuition tax credit increases to an amount somewhat less than the average alternative school tuition.71